If this year were an imaginary World Cup, Australia would have qualified for rugby’s quarterfinals. Top eight again, and a difficult matchup for England or even Ireland, if the pools sorted it that way.

Pushed from the ‘quarters’ picture were Wales and Fiji, the Wallabies’ pool mates last year. Fiji is fallow but Wales is in their deepest slump in a storied history; assisted by three losses to Australia.

All elite sport is animated – more than the casual fan cares to admit – by revenge motifs, or put a bit more palatably, turning things around. Everything now only makes sense by what was before.

When Joe Schmidt stepped in as Wallabies head coach, he understated his mission:

“I am conscious that the Wallabies have weathered a difficult period. I am keen to help them build a way forward, with greater alignment and clear direction from Rugby Australia.”

Cambridge tells us the verb ‘weathered’ mean “changed in colour or form over a period of time because of the effects of sun, wind or other weather conditions.”

When Wallaby fans strode out of Lyon’s far-flung stadium, out near the airport named for the little planet-hopping prince created by French pilot-novelist Antoine de Saint-Exupery, they experienced all the themes of Le Petit Prince: loneliness, loss and the feeling of being stranded, in a car park, a train, marooned from rugby. Faces were red, the oaths were fiery, like comets blazing, and even the beer lines dried up under the weight of crushed hopes, package tour wreckage, and incredulity.

Who would be keen to step into the cockpit of the Wallaby rocket, lost in space and time? Schmidt said he was, and from a purely coaching career standpoint, it was the perfect job. If the rebuild took time, the fanbase was conditioned. If he turned things around, he could name his price to a board so desperate to look smart they would break their broken bank on him.

CEO Phil Waugh dusted off his Eddie Jones arrival thoughts, switching nouns and deleting adverbs:

“Joe has delivered success at every stop in his career. Given our stated plan to build a unified Australian Rugby system, Joe’s experience with Ireland and New Zealand – two of the most aligned Rugby nations in the world – will no doubt prove valuable as we move forward.”

Schmidt and Waugh were, thus, aligned on the word ‘aligned,’ the most annoying consultancy term in today’s annoying world, just ahead of synergy, leverage, drilling down, actionable, circling back, disruptor, boxes thought outside of, and fruit hanging low in our faces.

We use the verb ‘align’ to pretend we are lined up, working across silos, share perspectives and have no intrinsic conflicts of interest. We cannot say out loud that the entire arrangement is predicated on winning. Everyone is aligned until the team keeps losing.

Schmidt’s team won the 2024 Tests they had to win (low hanging fruit), got drilled down by the Springboks and All Blacks until a late Sydney surge, won one they were not supposed to (England) in a disruptive match marked by the one tactic Schmidt discourages (flicks and tricks in the offload), circled back and lost the bellwether (Scotland), but lost by less as the year went on (Ireland) by having deep alignment with Ireland’s lineout and ornate attack schematics.

In short, the Wallabies thought inside the box and are now poised to give their head coach his biggest payday of a long and prosperous career. Who has the leverage in renegotiation now?

The weathered Wallabies, more so than the national union and suits, do seem to have genuine alignment: fast ruck ball, more carries into the final third, better cleaning on openside attack (still a bit off on the blindside), fewer handling errors, less penalties on attack and less cards on defence, stay in the fight, get off the ground, and clarity on who is doing what job when.

Most of Schmidt’s best side became clear by November, including prior castoffs Tom Wright, Len Ikitau, and captain Harry Wilson, as well as newcomers Jeremy Williams and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii. A core of Angus Bell, Taniela Tupou, Nick Frost, Fraser McReight, Rob Valetini, Wilson, Williams and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto completed a mobile but hard pack which could mix it with the teams outside the top four (but also Ireland).

In fact, he has a plausible pack which could compete with the British and Irish Lions if injury cover is brought in the form of the beefiest overseas-based Aussies. Once again, it is not that any of them (an Arnold brother or both, Will Skelton, Matt Philip, Kane Douglas, Scott Sio, bad boy Tolu Latu) is automatically the best of the squad, but rather they are easily superior in s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁s and experience to the weakest four or five domestic players, which tends to become relevant during a three-match brawl with the most physical Test side on the planet: a combined one from the Home Nations.

The issue is oddly enough in the backs, a traditional Australian forte.

The Lions have fullbacks Blair Kinghorn or Hugo Keenan to choose from, or even a misplaced Marcus Smith. Their midfield could be Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones or have a more Irish flavour with Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose. Wings like Duhan van der Merwe and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso are just as athletic and strong as the Wallaby choices at the moment, if not more so.

In the halves, a Finn Russell or Smith (or depending on how the Six Nations goes, one of the three young Irish tens) would not be looking up at Noah Lolesio (or my pick, Tane Edmed) and none of the Aussie scrumhalves has shown the full s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁 set on attack and defence, box kick and snipe, clean pass and sweep scramble that Jamison Gibson-Park has, over years.

On current form and on paper, the backlines are the mismatch, more than the forwards.

However, Schmidt has his priorities in order: he knows what the overseas tight forwards (or a loosie like Pete Samu) can bring and slot in for depth and he built a better carry-clean pack with his very own captain able to read breakdown politics better than Australia’s recent skippers.

Backline play can ebb and flow more and is more susceptible to Super Rugby Pacific form and rise.

If the Australian teams can embed enough of the template, a diamond pod with shapes that shift and move into space, far more contestable kicks in play but surer, longer exits, and a better sense of how to control the pace and texture against Kiwi teams off nine or ten, with an assist from fullback, Schmidt will think he has a big chance to take the first Test in Brisbane and then all bets are on.

The open questions seem to be whether Suaalii must play as a big stopping and ball-busting No.12 or will move to wing or fullback, the third and fourth big gainline carrier, the rise of effective speed (allied with kick-chase and kick-return) on the wings, an ability to spot blitz at the right moments, sheer depth at lock and prop, and getting the ball more easily to third receiver without using offloads.

A way forward is thus seen. Schmidt was not just a word salad of corporate speak: he is keen in mind and even if he is not young, he has the life force and energy of a searcher-seeker coach.