We’re over two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it’s time to take my first looks at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. Last week, I looked at the NL and AL Cy Young races. This week it’s on to the MVP chases, starting with the NL.

If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they “should have” produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter’s “Tru” Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their “Tru” Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in “Tru” Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA).

While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..

This analysis goes through Saturday’s games. Let’s get to it.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

How about Padres’ rookie CF Jackson Merrill (14.0 “Tru” Player Runs Above Average)? At age 21, he’s about as well-rounded as they come. He hits plenty of fly balls without popping up, and while his batted ball authority isn’t over the top great, it’s plenty competitive for a kid. Toss in solid defense and baserunning and it’s a pretty impressive package. While he might be slowing down a bit, Dodgers’ 1B Freddie Freeman (15.2 TPRAA) is still one of the game’s purest hitters. He doesn’t destroy the baseball, but his K/BB profile is as sound as ever, he rarely pops up while hitting plenty of flies (a recurring theme, as you shall see), and sprays the ball liberally to all fields. Phillies’ DH Kyle Schwarber (18.3 TPRAA) is the ultimate streak hitter, and he’s been on a pretty good one to start August. Only some Dodger DH tops Schwarber’s 297 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. Sure, he’s a dead-pull bat-only guy, but he draws plenty of walks and crushes all batted ball types.

Schwarber’s teammate, 1B Bryce Harper (18.6 TPRAA) has been slumping a bit of late but remains the Phillies’ most valuable position player. This hasn’t been his loudest offensive season, but he’s another one who hits plenty of flies while rarely popping up, and he’s been surprisingly solid defensively at first base. Giants’ 3B Matt Chapman (19.4 TPRAA) has been a clear bright spot in what has been a disappointing season by the bay. He crushes all batted ball types and provides solid hot corner defense. His new club appears inclined to try to lock him up for the long haul.

THE TOP FIVE

#5 – SS Elly De La Cruz (Reds) – 19.9 TPRAA – What a talent. Rough edges remain on his game, but hey, he’s 22. His defense has improved markedly this season – he’ll still make the careless error at times, but his range is remarkable and his arm a howitzer. And he’s stolen an MLB-high 59 bases. While his K rate is high, he is taking his walks. My method dings him a bit for what I call the “speed premium”. Elly gets lots of extra bases because of his wheels, essentially double-counting his speed in his WAR. Adjusted for context, he’s essentially a league average bat. But that’s OK – premium position, elite defense, great wheels, average bat with a massive upside – the sky indeed is the limit.

#4 – DH Marcell Ozuna (Braves) – 28.5 TPRAA – Now, onto the guys legitimately having MLB-caliber seasons. Yes, like Schwarber (and that guy on the Dodgers), Ozuna is a bat-only player. But his bat is truly elite. Only those two players have more thump in the air than the Braves’ DH’s 260 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. And if anything, he has been unlucky this season because of misfortune on line drives. He’s hitting only .633 AVG-.734 SLG (88 Unadjusted Liner Contact Score) on liners, but should be hitting .670 AVG-.885 SLG (110 Adjusted). Next to that guy on the Dodgers, Ozuna’s been the best hitter in the NL, and the gap isn’t as big as you think.

#3 – 2B Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) – 30.2 TPRAA – What a year this guy is having. It’s pretty rare for a hitter to have an average exit velocity of 90 mph or higher on his fly balls, liners and grounders (the grounders are the tricky one). Well, Marte’s average exit velocity is 93.0 mph or higher across all three batted ball types. There isn’t a flaw in his game – he’s a switch-hitter who makes hard contact to all fields from both sides of the plate, and is a solid baserunner and defender. Oh, and he’s yet another player who hits a representative number of fly balls while rarely popping up. He’s one of the toughest outs in the game today, a Luis Arraez/Steven Kwan type with damage in his repertoire.

#2 – SS Francisco Lindor (Mets) – 34.5 TPRAA – Another player who just doesn’t get enough credit. He goes to the post every day, is a Gold Glove caliber defender at a premium position, and is a consistent power producer. Lindor has been even better with the bat than his numbers indicate this season. He’s batting just .318 AVG-.902 SLG (112 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), but “should be” hitting .355 AVG-1.043 SLG (147 Adjusted) in the air. This has cost him almost 50 points of SLG overall and obscured his true value. Met fans, he’s worth that big contract, and is the biggest reason for the club’s surge that has vaulted them into playoff position.

#1 – DH Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) – 49.4 TPRAA – Just when you think you’ve seen everything, Ohtani goes and steals 32 bags in 114 games while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, on top of being the best hitter in the National League. Another fly ball hitter who doesn’t pop up, Ohtani’s 343 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is the NL’s best. He’s actually been quite unlucky in the air, and overall it’s cost him about 40 points of SLG. In the AL, he’d have his hands full with the top three players in their MVP race, but in the senior circuit, it’s an Ohtani runaway.

ONE MORE THING

The Dodgers’ Mookie Betts is set to return to the field, and just might rack up enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title after a long absence, but really shouldn’t be considered an MVP candidate. Despite his bold move to shortstop, he hasn’t been much of a defensive contributor this season, and his exit velocity numbers are way down. His superior K/BB profile and bat to ball s𝓀𝒾𝓁𝓁s could vault him into the Top 10 (11.3 TPRAA as we speak), but not into the Top 4.

Fangraphs WAR has it as a much tighter race than I see it, with Ohtani and De La Cruz at 5.6 WAR, Marte at 5.4 and Lindor at 5.3.