The Golden State Warriors could never get themselves settled till late in the season, by which point it became all too late as they left themselves at the mercy of the NBA’s Play-In Tournament where they were promptly run off the floor by the Sacramento Kings.
A quick look at the most used lineups across the league would suggest that consistency is key to building success. The starting units of the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder played the most minutes of any in the league, and subsequently, they finished as the top two teams in the Western Conference.
The Golden State Warriors have a series of key questions surrounding their starting lineup heading into next season
The Warriors most used lineup — featuring Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Jonathan Kuminga — were the 30th-ranked lineup for minutes played. Sure, Golden State had its injury and suspension issues, but the fact remains that Steve Kerr could never find an ultra-effective starting group.
It’s an aspect Kerr and the Warriors will need to resolve next season, so let’s look at five key questions regarding their lineups and rotations heading into the offseason.
1. Who starts next to Stephen Curry in the backcourt?
This question largely hinges on what happens with Klay Thompson in free agency, with the veteran sharpshooter currently weighing up a return to the franchise or what would still be considered as a shock move elsewhere.
But even if Thompson does re-sign with the Warriors, his spot next to Curry in the backcourt is far from a fait accompli. For the first time since his rookie year, the 34-year-old was moved to the bench just before the All-Star break as rookie Brandin Podziemski assumed the starting shooting guard spot.
While the two swapped places again to close the season, it’s almost inevitable that Thompson will become a reserve again at some point before his career is out. Does that happen immediately from the start of next season, and if so is it Podziemski or someone else that takes the role? If Thompson were to depart in free agency, perhaps Golden State look at Moses Moody as a similarly-sized three-point shooting threat as a starter.
Don’t rule out a trade either for a player who could take a starting backcourt role, particularly a player with a little more on-ball scoring and creation to support Curry. Dejounte Murray comes to mind here as someone who may be a realistic trade target for the franchise.
2. Can Jonathan Kuminga develop into a small forward?
This is a question Steve Kerr alluded to in his postseason press conference, with the head coach himself unable to answer it. Kuminga shot just 32.1% from three-point range this season, and his inability to garner the respect of opposing defenses from beyond the arc has pigeonholed him to being a power forward throughout his career to date.
Can that change in the course of one offseason? If so, it wouldn’t just unlock Kuminga’s already potent offensive game, but it would bring enormously important clarity to what the Warriors do in their frontcourt.
Right now Kerr can’t play Kuminga, Draymond Green, and Trayce Jackson-Davis together, leaving one as the odd man out from the starting lineup. That was Kuminga at the end of the season, owing to a slight injury late in the piece and Jackson-Davis’ impact in his absence.
Kuminga’s too good and too talented to go into next season as a bench player, yet at the same time how do the Warriors organize a sustainable lineup with both he and Green in it? Kuminga improving his three-point shot is the answer Golden State is desperately hoping for.
3. What position does Draymond Green need to play?
As referenced above, Green’s role is inexplicably linked with Kuminga as the primary power-forward’s who can hit from three-point range but who aren’t respected by opposing defenses. Even despite shooting a career-high 39.5% from beyond the arc this season, Green was more often than not left free to fire from deep.
Kuminga’s explosion into one of the league’s most improved players brought about a significant shift mid-season when Green became the team’s starting center. It worked too — the Warriors’ two most used lineups in their 27-12 run to end the regular season featured Green at the five.
However, using the 6’6″ veteran as a starting center simply isn’t sustainable, particularly given some of the star big men around the Western Conference. Kerr went to the pairing of Green and Jackson-Davis towards the end of the season, but while that duo was a major positive defensively, there remains a spacing concern on offense along with the Kuminga question above.
With the entire dilemma of Kuminga, Green, and Jackson-Davis in the front court, could we be on the precipice of the 34-year-old franchise legend potentially moving to the bench as early as next season?
4. Do the Warriors trust in Trayce Jackson-Davis or look for an upgrade at center?
As the Warriors scour the market for potential upgrades this offseason, one fascinating prospect is whether the franchise is after another big man, and specifically a starting big man.
An upgrade from Kevon Looney was long considered a requirement by fans last season, yet Jackson-Davis’ impression as a rookie far exceeded expectations and suggested that he’s the man for the role moving forward.
However, if Golden State does aspire to return to the playoffs, do they trust in Jackson-Davis to be their primary big against potential opponents like Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren, or the Timberwolves’ trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid?
That’s a big question and if the answer is no, they should be looking at alternative options this offseason before it’s too late. Prime-aged players Jarrett Allen and Clint Capela may be the most realistic targets for the Warriors over the coming months.
5. Who handles the non-Curry minutes if Chris Paul doesn’t return?
While the Warriors rightfully won’t want to pay $30 million for Chris Paul next season, his departure will certainly leave a void for the franchise should his non-guaranteed deal get waived (or traded) as expected.
This question may not be as big a priority as the above four given we’re not talking about the starting lineup, but it is nonetheless a crucial element to the Warriors’ construction for next season. The free agency options look bleak, at least in comparison to what Golden State had with Paul this season. Yet would they really want to trade for a backup point guard? Probably not.
Perhaps ideally the Warriors would use Paul’s salary in a trade for a player who could complement Curry in the starting lineup, while also being capable of running the second unit when he’s on the bench. This is what makes someone like Dejounte Murray an attractive option, even if he’s not quite the caliber of player the franchise may desire in their quest to return to the top of the conference. Failing that and you may be left with an underwhelming free agent on a minimum contract, or take the risky route of putting faith in a second-year combo guard in Brandin Podziemski.
